Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?

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Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook.

In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case.

Topics covered:

- Ed Yardeni's FEMO: fabulous earnings momentum versus fear of missing out
- Why strong earnings can support stocks even as valuation multiples fall
- The assumptions behind Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 target of 10,000 by 2029
- Retiree wealth, consumer spending and Ed Yardeni's G-shaped economy
- AI, productivity and data as a fourth factor of production
- Why Ed Yardeni favors the “impressive 493” as potential AI beneficiaries
- Cloud revenue, compute demand and the returns on AI capital spending
- Bond vigilantes, fiscal deficits and the difference between growth-driven yields and a debt crisis
- How diesel costs could feed into core inflation
- Global diversification and the bond market's role in guiding Fed policy

More from Ed Yardeni:

Yardeni Research
https://yardeni.com

Yardeni Research Charts
https://yardeni.com/charts

Yardeni Research QuickTakes
https://yardeni.com/research/quicktakes

Recorded October 2, 2026.

Chapters:
00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution
04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending
08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis
13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource
18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending
24:10 AI returns and the impressive 493
29:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields
38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries
43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification
47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market
51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools
56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economy

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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